Monthly Archives: April 2012

The following countries have just had two quarters of negative GDP growth in 4Q 2011 and 1Q 2012, for their second round of recession since 2007: United Kingdom, Spain, Greece, Italy, Ireland, Portugal, Belgium, the Netherlands, Cyprus, Slovenia, Denmark, the … Continue reading →

I have often commented on the remarkable optimism of markets given even a glimmer of hope — only at market bottoms does pessimism take over.  At tops, optimism seems unquenchable; that suggests we are at or near a top this … Continue reading →

The Dutch government collapsed today, after the far-right wing party withdrew its support over the government’s planned austerity measures.  This event foreshadows likely changes in France as well, where the far right did unexpectedly well (indeed better than ever), and … Continue reading →

I had the good fortune to attend a breakfast meeting with the Turkish Finance Minister, Mehmet Simsek, today.  He is remarkable, and a good example of elites in today’s Turkey.  He is young (44), well educated (M. Phil in Econmics … Continue reading →

In Tunisia, progress toward democracy is taking place remarkably uneventfully.  The Islamist Party, Ennahda, won the elections, but the secular CPR party also did well, and the government has said it will not impost strict Islamic law on the country.  … Continue reading →

US citizens pay their annual income taxes on April 15.   About the only good news is that tax rates remain low — both the payroll tax that supports social security (pensions) and the federal income tax were extended at lower … Continue reading →

It now appears the previous post is already obsolete.  New reports indicate shelling in the city of Homs, in response to anti-Assad demonstrations that broke out in the wake of the cease fire.  Will have to watch closely during the … Continue reading →

Syria gives (slight) cause for hope today — the guns have fallen silent.  It is likely only a tactical pause by Assad, as his tanks and snipers remain in place.  Still, any day without further bloodshed is a good thing. … Continue reading →

Kofi Annan is “shocked” that the agreement he brokered with Bashar al-Assad’s government is breaking down.  Really?   The Syrian opposition continues to bravely mount demonstrations and the Free Syrian Army continues to operate – so for Assad to withdraw from … Continue reading →