Morsi wins! (Never been so pleased to be wrong!)

I am very glad my fears did not come to pass.  Now we must wait and see how the Brotherhood and the military co-exist.  But this is a good step in the military recognizing it must compromise with popular demands.  Congratulations to Morsi, the Brotherhood, and Egypt for gaining their first popularly elected leader in a free election.

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About jackgoldstone

Hazel Professor of Public Policy at George Mason University
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One Response to Morsi wins! (Never been so pleased to be wrong!)

  1. Raja M. Ali Saleem says:

    MB should fully enjoy its victory but coming days are not going to be easy. Military is still the most powerful force in the country and it will remains so for years to come. To deal with such strong military, Morsi/MB now have two choices based on the experience of two other Muslim countries which found themselves in somewhat similar circumstances.

    Pakistan People Party (led by Benazir Bhutto) and AKP (led by Erdogan) won popular elections in 1988 and 2002 respectively but faced a deeply entrenched powerful military, unwilling to allow the new government to work independently. Even before they became Prime Ministers, Bhutto and Erdogan had to give assurances that they will play by the rules i.e. accept military’s ascendency and pre-eminance in the affairs of state. Reports of recent talks between the SCAF and MB show that such negotiations might also be happening in Egypt and orders of shoot-to-kill (which you referred in your previous post) might have been given to drop a hint to the MB negotiators that the military is ready for bloodshed, if assurances are not given. Fortunately, it appears MB has satisfied the military as Pakistani and Turkish militaries were also satisfied by the PMs Bhutto and Erdogan respectively.

    What happened next in Pakistan and Turkey is a lesson for MB and Morsi. In Pakistan, Bhutto did some good things to open Pakistani society and better the lot of women but her government was mostly associated with incompetence and corruption. This emboldened the military, raised its stature in masses and Bhutto’s government was thrown out of office in twenty months. For the next eight years, military assisted in removal of two more prime ministers, before a martial law was imposed in 1999 to end the decade-old democratic experiment.

    In contrast, Erdogan’s government performed remarkably well. It managed to improve most of the socio-economic indicators of the country and won praise from Turkish and international pundits for its dedication to the welfare of masses. This performance resulted in two more comprehensive electoral wins in the next nine years. With such popular support behind him, Erdogan gradually challenged the military prerogatives and now Turkey works more like an advanced democracy, with Turkish military almost completely under civilian control.

    Morsi and MB are well-advised to follow Erdogan’s footsteps and avoid Bhutto’s mistakes. Interestingly, General Tantawi, Chairman of SCAF, served as military attache in Egyptian embassy, Islamabad in the 1980s.

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