Monthly Archives: May 2012

Germany offers hope?

Germany’s GDP grew a surprisingly strong 0.5% in the first quarter of 2012.  This managed to pull the total Eurozone region growth for Q1 up to zero percent.  Yes, zero — but that is technically enough to avoid a formal … Continue reading

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Europe will slow, but China is already crawling….

Eight months ago, this blog ran a post titled “Ten Reasons why Growth is Dead.”   Every one of those reasons still looks solid (unfortunately).   Number 6, that Europe had pension and other state obligations that are unsustainable, was pretty straightforward.  Despite … Continue reading

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Experimenting on the Unemployed (but at least we will learn something!)

The U.S. is about to enjoy the benefit of a ‘natural experiment.’   Extended unemployment benefits are about to expire next week for another 200,000 workers, in addition to the 135,000 whose benefits expired during April. Conservatives have long claimed that … Continue reading

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Oops! Lost another couple of billion from “Safe” derivatives — JP Morgan

Jamie Dimon, head of JP Morgan, had a difficult to admission to make.  Give him credit for not sugar coating or hiding it.  The risk mitigation unit of JP Morgan — the group trying to make safe bets to counter … Continue reading

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Sad Time for Economists (and those who relied on them)

Economics claims to be a science, providing a theory and tools to understand the behavior of individuals, firms, and economies.  Of course, it failed badly to forecast the onset of the great recession, the magnitude of the great recession, the … Continue reading

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On the Home Front (very close to Home) — The Future of Higher Education

David Brooks recently suggested in the NY Times that, among other problems of unemployment, university professors could soon be obsolete, replaced by online education.  Today I have invited a guest blog from Linda Zabriski, an educational writer, to discuss the highlights of this … Continue reading

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Busy in Germany…

I was in Berlin to meet with a group discussing “Future Megatrends” at the Bertelsmann Foundation, and our group also hoped to meet Frau Merkel yesterday. But that meeting was cancelled — apparently because the PM is frantically preparing ways … Continue reading

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The World Drifts Left….

The center of political gravity in Europe is obviously moving leftward.  When Francois Hollande wins the French Presidential election on Sunday (barring a huge upset; today the center candidate threw his support to Hollande, further increasing the likelihood of victory), … Continue reading

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From Europe…

There are important things happening in Pakistan, Syria, and Latin America — but we will have to get to them later. This week I am in Europe;  London yesterday, Berlin today and for the rest of the week. I know we think … Continue reading

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