Two weeks ago, I argued that Obama would win Ohio and that would provide him the key to victory.  Today, the polls have moved strongly in that direction.  Why?

Ohio Unemployment:  August 2012 —   7.2%

Columbus area unemployment (Largest metro area in Ohio):  August 2012 — 5.9%.

Are you better off than you were three years ago?  In Ohio, the answer is YES.

These numbers make it hard for the Romney campaign to get traction.  Especially when the Republican state governor, John Kasich, who wants to take credit for the economic upswing, is going around the state telling everyone how great things are now.

“At a recent campaign event in conservative Owensville, (this and the next two paragraphs come from this link) a fiery Kasich boasted that ‘Ohio is rocking!’ — moments before turning the microphone over to Paul Ryan, who proceeded to issue dire warnings about Obama’s economic policies.

The mixed messaging has rankled Republicans in the Romney and Kasich camps. Both sides have done their best to keep the tensions under wraps, but they occasionally spill over into public view.

Rex Elsass, Kasich’s media consultant and a longtime adviser, told CNN that Romney is ‘running counter to the reality and the perception of people in Ohio.'”

Or, reality is running counter to Romney’s arguments for his election.