Looking ahead for 2014

As we enter 2014, it is worth looking back at 2013 and giving thanks for things that went right!

(1) The Eurozone avoided political or economic disaster.  Despite austerity policies damaging top-line economic growth, and leaving many European countries with higher debt/GDP ratios than in 2007, the promise of the ECB to do “whatever it takes” has lowered interest rates and prevented state bankruptcies.

(2) The Syrian civil war did not drive up oil prices and create a global economic or energy crisis.  For this, we can thank fracking and new oil finds in many parts of the world.  And the people of Iran for electing a regime committed to discussions with the West.

(3) The other Arab Uprising countries (Libya, Yemen, Egypt, Tunisia) have managed to avoid all-out civil wars; which historically are all too common in revolutions.  So far, only Syria (and Libya briefly) suffered from full-scale combat operations.

(4) China’s economy has stumbled but not fallen.  The new leadership has strengthened its position and committed itself to reforms to boost domestic consumption.  They have also been willing to prick bubbles in housing and credit.

(5) America’s economy has picked up and its political uncertainties are waning.  The worst wrangling over the deficit and budget seems behind us, the Tea Party extremists seem to have lost their intimidating hold over the Republicans in Congress, and a sensible (if far from ideal) compromise seems to have emerged on the budget, with progress on the minimum wage, immigration, and spending now looking possible.

So let’s give a cheer for five disasters-in-the-making that could have turned out much worse.  That is not to say these problems are all resolved, or that there are not others lurking.  My next post will look at the most troubling threats to global order and prosperity in the coming year.  But we can  take heart that our ability to resolve — or at least muddle through — severe problems is still capable of keeping us from falling into the worst outcomes.

Advertisements

About jackgoldstone

Hazel Professor of Public Policy at George Mason University
This entry was posted in The Global Economy, The Middle East Revolts, U.S. Politics and tagged , , . Bookmark the permalink.

18 Responses to Looking ahead for 2014

  1. Julie says:

    I don’t even understand how I ended up here, however I assumed this put
    up was good. I don’t know who you are but certainly you are going to a well-known blogger if you aren’t already.
    Cheers!

  2. domain says:

    Excellent post. Keep writing such kind of information on your site.

    Im really impressed by your site.
    Hello there, You have done a fantastic job.
    I’ll definitely digg it and in my opinion suggest to my friends.
    I am sure they will be benefited from this website.

  3. Great post. I was checking constantly this weblog and I am inspired!
    Very useful information specifically the closing part 🙂 I maintain such information much.

    I was looking for this particular info for a long time.
    Thank you and best of luck.

  4. Sanford says:

    We’re a gaggle of volunteers and opening a brand new scheme in our community.
    Your web site offered us with valuable information to work on. You have performed an impressive process
    and our whole group will likely be thankful to you.

  5. Hello! This post could not be written any better!
    Reading through this post reminds me of my previous room mate!
    He always kept talking about this. I will forward this post to him.
    Fairly certain he will have a good read. Thanks for sharing!

  6. Hello all, here every person is sharing such
    know-how, therefore it’s pleasant to read this website, and I
    used to pay a quick visit this weblog daily.

  7. South Korea chanel Bags
    Hi! I’ve been reading your weblog for some time now and finally got
    the courage to go ahead and give you a shout out from Austin
    Tx! Just wanted to tell you keep up the fantastic job!

  8. You actually revealed it really well!

  9. tree trimers says:

    Many thanks. An abundance of info!

  10. Awesome postings, Appreciate it!

  11. Valuable write ups, Regards.

  12. Regards, Fantastic stuff!

  13. Point very well applied!!

  14. Denny says:

    Pretty element of content. I just stumbled upon your blog and
    in accession capital to assert that I get in fact loved account your blog posts.
    Anyway I will be subscribing for your feeds or even I
    achievement you get right of entry to constantly fast.

  15. Gabriella says:

    This is very interesting, You’re a very skilled blogger.
    I’ve joined your rss feed and look forward to
    seeking more of your great post. Also, I’ve shared your web site in my social networks!

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s